Three groups estimated this year's shortfall and got three numbers. They differ on what to count, not on the facts.
| Estimate | Shortfall, FY 2026–27 | What it assumes |
|---|---|---|
| Treasurer's projection | ₹91 L | Spending of ₹33 L a month; only HDFC interest counted; nothing saved. |
| Managing Committee's working model | ₹70–80 L | Actual spending of about ₹31 L a month; all interest counted, including ICICI interest that arrives at maturity; tax on interest provided; no savings yet. |
| Finance Sub-Committee's report | ₹23 L | Running costs only (no one-time items), ₹18 L a year of savings assumed before they are made, and tax at a third of last year's level. |
The account had ₹5.9 L at the end of Aug 26 — about a week of spending. Spending is ₹26 L a month, plus tax in September, December and March, plus the ₹8 L lift contract in December. The next bill is 1 October at the current rate. The meeting cannot be held before 18 October. The table below starts from the real Aug 26 closing balance: even with a 20% increase from 1 October, the account still needs the reserves in several months, because there is no cushion left to absorb the wait.
| Month-end | In | Out | Cash if nothing changes | Cash with +20% from 1 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 (actual) | 8.8 | 37.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Sep 26 | 5.3 | 28.5 | −17.3 | −17.3 |
| Oct 26 · Q3 bill | 58.3 | 26.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Nov 26 | 5.3 | 26.0 | −5.7 | 4.9 |
| Dec 26 · lift AMC, tax | 5.3 | 36.5 | −36.9 | −26.3 |
| Jan 27 · Q4 bill | 58.3 | 26.0 | −4.6 | 16.6 |
| Feb 27 | 5.3 | 26.0 | −25.3 | −14.7 |
| Mar 27 · tax | 5.3 | 28.5 | −48.5 | −37.9 |
Assumes no ICICI deposits mature and no savings from tenders yet. A maturing ICICI deposit (one is expected within weeks) would ease this. Tax is at the current ₹2.5 L a quarter; the Options page defaults to the higher, correct provision, so it shows a somewhat larger draw. Negative means the reserves are used.
Illustrative only. The MC's proposal will be in the meeting notice. Once a flat's monthly charge crosses ₹7,500, 18% GST applies. It can apply to the whole amount (the tax department's position) or only to the amount above ₹7,500 (a High Court reading). The difference is over ₹1,300 a month for the larger flats. Written advice is being taken.
| Flat type | Today, per month | At +20% | With GST on the whole amount | With GST only above ₹7,500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A / E (1,934 sq ft) | ₹7,432 | ₹8,918 | ₹10,524 | ₹9,174 |
| A1 / E1 (1,949 sq ft) | ₹7,499 | ₹8,999 | ₹10,619 | ₹9,269 |
| B / F (1,822 sq ft) | ₹6,921 | ₹8,305 | ₹9,800 | ₹8,450 |
| B1 / F1 (1,837 sq ft) | ₹6,988 | ₹8,386 | ₹9,895 | ₹8,545 |
| C (1,633 sq ft) | ₹6,058 | ₹7,270 | ₹7,270 | ₹7,270 |
| D1 (1,560 sq ft) | ₹5,723 | ₹6,868 | ₹6,868 | ₹6,868 |
| D (1,485 sq ft) | ₹5,381 | ₹6,457 | ₹6,457 | ₹6,457 |
Flats still below ₹7,500 pay no GST under either reading. If the association can reclaim the GST on its own contracts (about ₹35 L a year), the increase needed is smaller.
Both are needed. The two big contracts have never been tendered. They are being tendered now. But tenders take months, and the savings start next year. Residents rated housekeeping and landscaping the best services on the estate. Cutting those to avoid an increase would trade a visible service for an invisible saving. The lift contract, rated worst, is being rebid on uptime.